Low order high inventory pressure on the real economy in January the central bank or move

January 4 was the first working day of the New Year, but it was hard to break into the sadness of Huo Zhanxing, owner of Zhejiang Art Hai Toy Factory.

“2012 in the movie really came.” Huo Zhanxing told the Daily Economic News reporter on the phone. “A lot of workers told me that the train tickets are not good to buy, and they will not return home until January 15. In order to retain these skilled workers next year, I can only agree."

He said weakly that the workers are still easy to handle. The most important thing is that they do not have orders now. They originally wanted to make a Christmas payment, but orders from Europe and the United States were not as good as they were last year, and prices could not go up.

"Daily Economic News" reporter was informed that the "cold" felt by Huo Bo is not an example. On January 1st, Premier Wen Jiabao of the State Council investigated in Hunan. At the forum, he bluntly said, “From a national perspective, the first quarter may be more difficult. This is why I came to talk with entrepreneurs on New Year’s Day.”

Bai Pengming, a macro analyst at China Investment Advisors, told the Daily Economic News that the first quarter of this year was a period of extreme crossover between extremes of monetary policy and extremes of real economic development. He said that due to the impact of macroeconomic policies, the real economy faces dual pressures from the market and capital, and the low season of foreign trade in the first quarter of 2012 made this pressure even more pronounced.

"Daily Economic News" reporter interviewed a number of companies and found that the current new orders and high inventory are the main source of business pressure. Several research institutions believe that because the central bank did not continue to lower the RRR in December 2011, in order to increase economic vitality, the deposit reserve ratio in January is likely to be lowered again.

Parallel to Orders and Inventory Pressures December 2011 PMI Although exceeding market expectations, the final value of 50.3% is still at the edge of the balance sheet. Moreover, from the specific value point of view, the momentum of corporate order warming is not strong. The new orders index for the month was 49.8%, and the export orders index was 49.1%, which was still below 50% after a sharp increase of 2% and 3% respectively.

From the perspective of industry data, light industry and heavy industry are also facing the dilemma of “no work”. According to the National Development and Reform Commission, from January to November 2011, China completed 61.77 million dwt of shipbuilding, an increase of 8.8% year-on-year; new ship orders received 33.69 million dwt, a year-on-year drop of 47.3%, and over 30% of medium and small shipbuilding companies did not Received an order.

The toy industry that Huo Zhanxing is engaged in is a typical example of “Made in China”, but according to media reports, cold data show that even before Christmas 2011, the orders of the Chinese toy industry that accounted for nearly 90% of the global market share were also compared. In previous years, it was probably reduced by more than 20%.

Guotai Junan macro analyst Lu Chunjie told the “Daily Economic News” reporter that the decline in corporate orders was mainly due to declining property demand and the more pessimistic economic situation abroad. In the first quarter, companies will also face pressure from inventory, which will affect the production momentum of enterprises and make China The economic growth rate is lower than the low point.

"The process of de-stocking is still difficult to complete in the short term." Ping Qing Securities analyst He Qingming believes that although the new orders index and production index of enterprises both rebounded in December, the new orders index was significantly weaker than the production index, and the export orders index also Still below 50.

Lu Chunjie said that the current finished product inventory has shown signs of falling back from high levels, and inventory highs often correspond to economic lows. He believes that the Chinese economy's current round of lows will appear in the first quarter, while the year-on-year lows will appear in the second quarter, and then begin to stabilize and pick up.

The central bank is very difficult to "do not move" in January

When asked what he most wanted to help, Huo Zhanxing spoke out of two points: First, policy support; Second, to get more.

This also reflects the voice of most companies. Zhan Chunxin, chairman of Zoomlion, proposed that the country increase credit support for upstream small and medium-sized supporting enterprises, and increase funding support for key downstream construction projects, so that equipment rental companies and construction companies can have a livelihood. There is money to get it.

“Although the PMI data rebounded, it basically confirmed the soft landing of the Chinese economy. However, considering that real estate investment will decline this year, the trend of export decline is basically certain.” said Shen Jianguang, chief economist at Ruisui Securities, there is still January The reserve ratio may be lowered once, and the fiscal policy is more positive to ensure a soft landing.

Lv Chunjie also believes that the central bank will likely lower the RRR again in January given the reduction in ** occupation and the gradual downward pressure on the economy.

On the issue of interest rates, Bai Pengming said that from the current overall economic environment, the possibility of interest rate cuts in January is very small. The reason is that the interest rate hike in 2011 is not used as a common economic control policy, so even if the inflection point of monetary policy appears, deposits The reserve ratio will become the key means to change the monetary policy first.