The open market operation, the net capital of the funds will maintain a tight balance

Securities Times Network October 25th

Securities Times reporter Liu Yucheng

On October 25, the central bank issued a notice saying that a 160 billion yuan reverse repurchase operation was carried out by means of interest rate bidding. Among them, the 7-day period was 100 billion yuan and the 14-day period was 60 billion yuan. The winning bid rates were 2.45% and 2.60%, respectively, which was the same as the previous period. On the same day, there were 160 billion yuan of 7-day reverse repurchase due, and the central bank realized zero return of funds. Previously, the central bank has implemented net delivery for six consecutive trading days. According to the statistics of Wind Information Financial Terminal, the accumulated net investment reached RMB 484.5 billion.

October has always been a big tax payment. Researchers believe that due to the shift of the tax period, the fiscal taxation is expected to be mainly affected by the liquidity on the 25th of this month, and the financial situation caused by tax payment will last for several days. After the tax payment is completed, the liquidity at the end of the month will improve.

On the same day, the funds were significantly tightened compared with the previous two days. In the capital market, the main repo rate was mostly up. In the inter-bank pledged repo rate, the 1-day period rose 3.63 basis points to2.6691%, the 7-day variety rose 14.41 basis points to 2.9286%, and the 14-day variety rose 15.89 basis points. To 4.1717%; Shibor (Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate), except for the slight decline in the June period, the other varieties have different degrees, the overnight varieties up 3 basis points reported 2.6640%, 7-day varieties rose 2.51 basis points 2.8594%.

Xu Hanfei, chief analyst of China Merchants Securities, believes that the current central bank has gradually formed a set of open market operations paradigm, and will also be more flexible according to market liquidity conditions. In the short-term, specific to the impact of this tax period, this week's liquidity will indeed tighten relative to the periphery, but certainly better than the same period in July. The central bank has already made ample preparations for the arrival of the tax period, and the net investment before the tax period is the highest since the beginning of this year. Moreover, the practice of the central bank’s net placement during the tax period will be maintained with a high probability.

The analyst believes that for a long time, on the one hand, according to this year's experience, liquidity and supervision are complementary, that is, if there is a new regulatory shock, the liquidity will be relaxed to ease market sentiment; On the other hand, the economic probability of the fourth quarter has weakened. In the case that high interest rates have already hurt the real economy, even if liquidity does not appear to be greatly relaxed, the possibility of marginal tightening is not high.

According to the CITIC Securities research report, according to the central bank's idea of ​​cutting the peaks and filling the valley and ironing the temporary disturbance of liquidity, the central bank will generally take the tax payment period around the 15th of each month because of the greater impact of the tax period on the liquidity level of the banking system. The open market operation of the gradual liquidity of net liquidity began to gradually withdraw funds in the latter half of the year. In the short-term, with the tax period ending and the need to maintain stability during major meetings, the liquidity environment is inevitable in October. In the long run, it is difficult to maintain the current strength of liquidity after major meetings, and the pressure on funds is relatively high. The specific performance is that in the second half of October, a large number of 7-day and 14-day reverse repurchases have been loosely maintained. In the context of a relatively loose liquidity level in early November, a large amount of liquidity will expire in early November, and the marginal tightening of funds will be large. Probability event. In addition, the fiscal deficit in the first three quarters accounted for the proportion of the annual fiscal deficit budget over the same period of the previous year. The fiscal expenditure in the fourth quarter was constrained, and the liquidity in the 11th and 12th months will have a marginal tightening momentum.

(Securities Times News Center)