The cotton planting area in Xinjiang declined in the new year but the quality of cotton increased significantly

The market is optimistic about the listing price of new cotton

introduction

From the standpoint of the apparent performance of Xinjiang's cotton market in the new year, it showed the characteristics of continued decline in area, improvement in yield, improvement in quality, optimism for cotton farmers and prudent ginning factories. Among them, the improvement of cotton quality will change the domestic cotton supply structure, boost the overall increase in cotton prices and increase the income of cotton farmers.

According to statistics, the cotton planting area in Xinjiang in 2014 was 29 million mu. In 2015, the planting area decreased by 4.65 million mu to 24.35 million mu. This year, the planting area dropped by 1.5 million mu to 22.85 million mu.

From the reasons for the continuous decline in cotton planting area, the key to the 2014 and 2015 years is that the purchase price of seed cotton is too low. In addition, the disastrous weather in some parts of Xinjiang in these two years also caused a decline in the yield of cotton, which resulted in the income of cotton farmers. In order to reduce losses, some farmers have reduced their cotton planting area and reduced their use of crops such as corn and wheat.

At the moment when cotton prices have continued to rise back at the end of 2015, why is this year's cotton planting area continuing to decline? Different from the previous two years, this decline was caused by the adjustment of the local planting structure, so that areas that are not suitable for cotton planting were withdrawn from the cotton cultivation and agricultural production was developed as soon as possible according to local conditions.

According to the survey of cotton market in Xinjiang from September 1 to September 8, the production situation in China's largest cotton production area in the new year is relatively good. The Xinjiang cotton production area covered by this survey covers an area of ​​about 18 million mu this year, accounting for 78.8% of the cotton planting area in Xinjiang. The expected output is 3.04 million tons, which is an increase of 70,000 tons from the expected output in the same period of last year. . In 2015, the cotton planting area in the region was approximately 19 million mu, which accounted for about 78% of the cotton planting area in 2015. The output was 2.97 million tons, accounting for 83.9% of the total 3.54 million tons of cotton in Xinjiang.

“According to our investigation, the average cotton yield per unit area in this year was 168.4 kg/mu after converting lint into cotton. The average yield in 2015 was 156.7 kg/mu, and the average yield per unit was improved by 11.7 kg/mu, an increase of 7.45%. In seed cotton, the yield per hectare of seed cotton is increased by about 30 kilograms.” The increase in cotton yield per unit area of ​​production is mainly concentrated in the production and construction regiments, with little change in local cotton field yields.

Based on previous experience in estimating production, combined with the fact that the actual cotton planting area in Xinjiang this year may be higher than the statistics of relevant cotton-related institutions in various regions, it is expected that Xinjiang's cotton production will be between 3.6 million and 3.8 million tons this year.

Xinjiang's cotton quality is obviously better than in previous years

It is understood that after the implementation of the cotton interim purchase and storage policy and market target price policy in the Xinjiang cotton market, the relevant local agencies and cotton farmers will increase the market competitiveness of Xinjiang cotton, increase the share of Xinjiang cotton market, and achieve the purpose of multi-channel sales of Xinjiang cotton. The goal of increasing the sales price of Xinjiang cotton and realizing the increase of income has strengthened the management of the cotton quality in Xinjiang, and has taken various measures to improve the cotton quality in Xinjiang. For example, in the Xinjiang Production and Construction Corps, all divisions, groups, and responsible persons all regard upgrading the quality of cotton as the first priority. In particular, the cotton and linen companies of the Corps basically follow the principle of “one master and one pair” or “one master and two”. The principle of “deputy” was to select good varieties of cotton, and continued to strengthen the promotion and popularization of the “sparse and high-yield” planting model. At the same time, it strengthened the process control of the cotton harvesting process and optimized the downstream processing technology. Since the management level of the entire cotton planting, harvesting, harvesting and rolling stage has been significantly improved, the cotton quality in Xinjiang this year has been significantly better than in previous years.

At the end of July 2015, the continued high-temperature weather in the cotton producing areas of Xinjiang, coupled with the lack of management, resulted in short cotton length. This year, the United States and the United States, coupled with management in place, Xinjiang cotton, length, horse value, intensity is generally better, "double 28, double 29" cotton abound. For cotton downstream textile mills, this is undoubtedly a boon. It is expected that this year's domestic cotton market will no longer suffer from structural imbalances in cotton supply as it did in 2015, and the tension in the supply of high-quality cotton in the domestic cotton market will be eased, even Will disappear. In addition, due to the improvement in the quality of cotton, the number of cottons that meet Zheng cotton registration standards this year is more, and Zheng cotton warehouse receipts are expected to be more abundant, which will increase the enthusiasm of downstream cotton mills to receive Zheng cotton warehouse receipts.

Farmers are generally optimistic about new cotton prices

Since March of this year, domestic and foreign cotton prices have continued to rise, although they are currently falling, they are still higher than the prices at the end of last year. At the same time, the downstream demand for cotton is still good, and the market is more optimistic about the listing price of new cotton.

From the current psychological and price expectations for the sale of cotton by the Cotton Farmers and Production and Construction Corps in Xinjiang, cotton farmers are generally optimistic about the price of new cotton, and are more optimistic about planting income.

For cotton farmers, in recent years, the target price policy has ensured the planting income. The price of lint this year has been subject to long-term ups and downs, and the price of new cotton will certainly be higher than last year. The new seed cotton is expected to be priced at RMB 7-8/ kg. Some farmers said that due to the continuous implementation of the target price policy, the new seed cotton prices will be sold at 6 yuan/kg and 7 yuan/kg this year. The final yield is the same as expected. If the seed cotton can be sold for more than 8 yuan/kg, it will not Subsidy does not matter (After last year's direct target price, the price of seed cotton for cotton farmers was around 8 yuan/kg). Therefore, as long as the market price of new seed cotton produced this year is not lower than the average selling price of last year's 5.5 yuan/kg, the cotton farmers will basically follow the market to sell cotton, and there will be no reluctance to sell goods.

Compared with the cotton farmers' more relaxed psychological sales, the ginning factory purchases seed cotton is very cautious. At present, due to concerns that the market price of new seed cotton will show a trend of highs and lows during the time of listing, in order to avoid losses caused by falling prices, the purchase price of new seed cotton for some ginning factories is kept as low as possible, and the current purchase price is mainly concentrated at RMB 6.2-6.4/ Kg, and implement a business strategy of fast forward and fast exit. Some of the more cautious ginners are buying seed cotton at a price of RMB 6/kg as soon as they are listed on the new seed cotton.

“If the new seed cotton is purchased at a price of 6 yuan/kg, the cost of processing and transporting it to the Mainland and registering it as a Zheng cotton warehouse will be around RMB 13,100/ton. The profit margin that can be obtained by throwing these warrants on the Zheng cotton forward contract is not small. "Currently, some ginners and cotton traders are currently carrying out arbitrage operations for buying spot futures.

Cotton prices need to see the changes in the international cotton market

This year, Xinjiang's cotton production is expected to be 3.6-3.8 million tons, and the mainland is expected to be 700,000-800,000 tons. In the new year, the national cotton production is expected to be 4.3-4.6 million tons, plus an import quota of 894,000 tons, corresponding to the expected 7.4 million. Tons of cotton demand, despite the shortage of supply of about 2 million tons in the new year, but due to the supplementary supply of reserve cotton, the overall supply and demand contradiction of the domestic cotton market in the new year will not be very prominent, even if the number of short-term storage out of the State Reserve Cotton is low or The phenomenon of insufficient supply in the market caused by the lack of timeliness in the library, cotton prices are estimated to have a “pulse” trend, and the long-term trend is estimated to be relatively stable.

From the analysis of the policy factors that the domestic cotton market can influence the price of cotton, the keynote of the cotton price regulation policy is to prevent the phenomenon of “cotton plague and injury to farmers”, but also to prevent the excessive increase of cotton price to reduce the market competition of downstream textile enterprises. The phenomenon of force appears. On the whole, the main factors influencing the future price trend of domestic cotton come from changes in the supply and demand of international cotton markets in addition to China.

At present, the international cotton market has not experienced major changes in supply and demand. The increase in production of US cotton is basically confirmed. In the future, the main supply and demand variables in the international cotton market will come from supply and demand changes in India and Pakistan. It is understood that the Pakistan Cotton Production Evaluation Committee predicts that the country’s cotton production this year will be 1.91 million tons, which exceeds the 1.74 million tons predicted by the US Department of Agriculture. India's cotton planting area has dropped by 8.8% this year. Future changes in the country's production forecast are expected to have a greater impact on the cotton price in the international market.

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